The Republican presidential primary contest today in Wisconsin is fascinating for a number of reasons. First and foremost, a strong Wisconsin victory by Romney could put the Republican nomination fight on ice. For almost a month now, establishment Republicans, the media, and the Romney campaign have tried to make the case the primary is effectively over. Romney and his allies have had success in making the argument, but Rick Santorum’s ability to produce wins on Super Tuesday and in four other states that have followed has limited the impact of the argument substantially.
Romney’s delegate lead and other advantages have had a significant impact. One only needs to look at the string of endorsements Romney has received over the last seven days, which include two big endorsements from Wisconsin in Congressman Paul Ryan and Senator Ron Johnson. Still, the only way for Romney to bring the primary to a close is for him to have a convincing win in Wisconsin tonight.
A number of polls indicate that Romney should win in Wisconsin tonight, but his seven-point advantage over Santorum is not as strong as the 15-point advantage he had in Illinois. Santorum has also shown a propensity for out performing his poll numbers. The most recent example of Santorum out performing his poll numbers was in Alabama and Mississippi, but that was also the case in Colorado and Wisconsin’s neighbor to the west, Minnesota.
While Romney needs a win to basically put an end to the primary, Santorum needs a win to give his campaign a boost in order to make it to the May contests, which are very favorable for him. Santorum last won a contest on March 24th, so if he loses Wisconsin, a month will have passed without a victory leading into the April 24th primary in his home state of Pennsylvania. If Romney is unable to seal the deal in Wisconsin tonight, it’s very unlikely that we’ll see Santorum getting out of the race before the primary contests come to an end.
Another fascinating aspect of the Wisconsin primary is that it’s being overshadowed by the June recall election. Republican activists in Wisconsin are paying more attention to the recall election of Governor Scott Walker than the presidential race. For the first time in the 2012 campaign, the presidential primary is not the only circus in town. All of the presidential ads that are being run in the state don’t just have to compete with their opponents’ ads, but also the ads that are running in advance of the June recall.
The focus on the recall election could significantly hamper turnout for the presidential primary. It’s hard to tell who benefits more from a low turnout, Romney or Santorum. Romney has been making the case that the primary is basically over. That’s a good narrative to push with national media, but it could also mean that his supporters might not be apt to go to the polls. Santorum’s supporters have been passionate, but with the narrative that he can’t win coupled with Congressman Ryan and Senator Johnson’s recent endorsements of Romney, they could say to themselves, “why bother.” You could easily say that it’s a toss-up as to who’s supporters are more likely to go to the polls today, but Santorum’s advantage with social conservatives could give him an edge.
Tonight’s results in Wisconsin will answer a lot of questions. Has Romney essentially wrapped up the Republican nomination, or does Santorum have license to keep forging ahead? In addition to that, Wisconsin will also tell us whether voters are as ready for the Republican primary to be over as they media and the Republican establishment are. The answer is anyone’s guess. Polls close at 8:00 p.m. tonight.
Related articles
- Romney’s Path to Nomination Runs Through Wisconsin (usnews.com)
- What to Watch in Wisconsin (thedailybeast.com)
- Romney, Santorum focus on Wisconsin ahead of Tuesday primaries (politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com)
- Santorum defiant; Romney set for strong showing – Obama tries to overshadow GOP field, again (foxnews.com)
