Along with securing the majority of slots on the Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee, Ron Paul supporters dominate the committee tasked with choosing delegates to the RNC convention. Six of the eight members of the State Nominating Committee are Paul backers. That means Iowa’s national delegate slate is also likely to be stacked with Paul supporters.
Here is a breakdown of the State Nominating Committee:
Roger Kistler – Jones County Chairman of Ron Paul Campaign
Carol Johnson – vocal Ron Paul supporter
Karen Fesler, Johnson County Chair of Rick Santorum campaign
Christine Graber, a Ron Paul supporter, according to district convention delegates
Monte Shaw, remained publicly neutral during the caucus
Nancy Bowery, Page County coordinator for Campaign for Liberty
Dusty Juhl, the interim state coordinator for Campaign for Liberty
David Haas, a Ron Paul volunteer organizer
This group will select 13 of Iowa’s 28 delegates. Three more delegate slots automatically go to the state’s RNC officials, RPI chairman, A.J. Spiker, National Committeeman Steve Scheffler and Committeewoman Kim Lehman. Spiker was the vice-chair for Paul’s campaign. Scheffler was vocal in his distaste for likely GOP nominee Mitt Romney in the months before the caucus. Lehman endorsed Rick Santorum. The trio refused to sign a pledge to support Romney during last weekend’s RNC gathering.
It is also believed that Scheffler and Lehman voted for Spiker to become RPI chairman, which he won on a 9-8 vote on the second ballot. Scheffler is also the president of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition. His group selected Rand Paul to headline their annual “Spring Kickoff”. Scheffler, Spiker and Lehman have promised to back the GOP nominee. That oath does not preclude them from voting for Ron Paul on the first ballot at the RNC convention.
Iowa’s 12 other delegates will be chosen on June 15, the night before the state convention, when district conventions reconvene in Des Moines. This will give the Paul campaign another opportunity to pick up the majority of delegate slots. His supporters will be well organized, as they were at district conventions. Altogether, there is a very strong likelihood that more than 20 of Iowa’s 28 national delegates will vote for Ron Paul at the national convention.
Paul’s is the only presidential campaign actively working the caucus-to-convention process to secure delegates in states like Iowa. Rick Santorum’s departure from the race has lessened his supporters’ zeal to become national delegates. Meanwhile, the Romney campaign is not even trying to organize in caucus states like Iowa where the votes have already taken place.
Mitt Romney had no presence at Iowa’s four district conventions. No palm cards, no signs, no lapel stickers and no organization. The Romney campaign is allowing Ron Paul to make the national convention process more difficult, and potentially embarrassing. Paul supporters already secured 20 of Minnesota’s 40 national delegates, with a strong likelihood of picking up almost all of them, as well as most of the alternates.
Realistically, Ron Paul has zero chance at becoming the GOP presidential nominee. The math simply does not add up. He has won zero states at the polls. Even if Paul somehow secured every single delegate from the “non-binding” caucus states like Iowa, that gives Paul only 310 delegates. Add that to the 70 he has picked up so far, and he would still hold less than 400 delegates.
Throw in a few more in the remaining states, and maybe a few of Rick Santorum’s delegates, and Paul will still come up several hundred delegates short. It takes 1,144 to secure the nomination. There is a strong likelihood Mitt Romney can garner those before the convention in August.
Although they will not reveal this to their supporters, the Paul campaign knows he cannot win. Their goal is to secure a high profile slot at the RNC convention. Taking over state GOP parties and committees like they have done in Iowa will help them achieve that goal.